Research · Meridian Data
Written by the analysts who run the books. No house view, no price targets dressed up as forecasts — each note states its own balance, its assumptions and the conditions under which it is wrong.
Exchange inventories have fallen for eleven consecutive weeks while the curve has barely moved. That divergence rarely survives a quarter.
Marguerite Okonjo · Head of Metals & Mining
Read the note →The old inverse correlation with TIPS yields has not broken. It has changed its input from the change in yields to the level of yields — and that distinction matters for 2027.
A $1.40 front spread looks tight until you notice that the prompt contract is now a fraction of the volume it was five years ago.
The market has discounted the tighter cap. It has not discounted what a €90 allowance does to the marginal European aluminium smelter.
Weather models get the headlines. Insurance premia and corridor capacity set the price, and both have been quietly tightening since August.
Three consecutive deficit years have produced a price that should have fixed the problem. It hasn't, and the reason is biological, not financial.
Important. Meridian Data is a fictional firm and these notes are fabricated for demonstration. They are not investment research within the meaning of any regulation, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and are not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination.
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